Giving up

I just read a blog that exactly predicted who the participants in the quarter-finals would be, one day before the tournament started. Ok, well they were 7/8 on the quarterfinal participants - they thought Croatia instead of France would be playing Brasil. The important thing is that they not only got the participants correct, but they correct predicted WHO they would be playing! (Which, if you have been following closely you will realise, is contingent on also correctly predicting whether the said teams will finish 1st or 2nd in their respective group. Tricky business.)

The point is, with pundits like this, why do I even bother?

. . . devotion has its own reward.

10 out of 16!! Honestly, that's not that bad, is it? I just want to quickly make excuses for some of the ones I got wrong:

Group A - Ok, I overestimated the strength of the CONCACAF representative, but I had good reason for underestimating Ecuador: I've watched Delgado play for Southampton and De la Cruz play for Aston Villa, and they've been generally useless. I, nor anyone else, expected Ecuador to score 5 goals, much less have Delgado get 2 of them!

Group C - It all hinged on the Ivory Coast v Argentina game - it needed to finish in a tie. But for those who watched it, you know how close I was to being right about it - Ivory Coast totally bossed the posession! They really should have tied the game but they just wouldn't take the shots! Despite the 6-0 drubbing of Serbia & Montenegro, and qualification to the quarter-finals, I still stand by what I said about this being a weak Argentina team (compared to past ones). Germany WILL beat them in the quarter-finals.

Group E - Like I said, I never really expected Italy to not qualify, but I was hoping. What we really should focus on is the fact that I did predict Ghanaian qualification when no one else did!

Group F - I really have no excuse here.

Group G - I was suffering from a lack of any sort of head-to-head comparison between South Korea and Switzerland. I knew they both had the pedigree to go through, but who would edge it? Well, they never play each other--they never even play the same opponents!--so I had to go with my gut. My gut was wrong. But I was right about France.

Group H - Tunisia should never have let Saudi Arabia tie them. That was sad. Look for Ukraine to succumb to the Swiss in the round of 16.

Excuses successfully aired, now let's get some knockout predictions up here! I'm sorry that I let a half the round of 16 get by me before getting these up, but I have been justifiably busy. FOR THE RECORD, in the four matches that have already passed, I would have picked Germany, Argentina, England, and Netherlands. (that would have been 3/4, and anyone who saw the Portugal v Netherlands game can forgive me for not getting that one correct!!)

So let me finish of the round of 16 by picked Italy, Brasil (I'm sorry), Switzerland, and Spain.

Predictions for the quarter-finals! Germany defeat Argentina, England defeat Portugal, Brasil defeat Italy (I certainly hope so!), Spain defeat Switzerland. So my revised final four looks like Germany, England, Brasil, and Spain, which is 50% different than the final four I picked at the start of the tournament. How different will it be from the actual final four??

So it is beginning to look like the final may be a repeat of four years ago, with Germany and Brasil taking part. If that happens Germany will win. I can only hope that England get past Portugal and provide enough of a roadblock in the semi-finals to trip up Germany.

Unlikely, but anything can happen - that is why we watch, cheer, and pray!

C'mon England, C'mon England!

For the patient legions of faithful . . .

The time is finally upon us. The final month of a two and a half year tournament approaches. The most watched sporting event on the planet draws everyone into this fatal trap - the trap of "making predictions".

The first rule of making predictions is that YOU ARE ALLOWED TO BE TOTALLY BIASED. The second rule is that WHATEVER YOU PREDICT IS GUARANTEED NOT TO HAPPEN. So just for fun, just for a laugh, here are my predicitions for the group stages. I will also predict who I think will be the final four, and of course who I think will win. Then, when the group stages are over, I will revise my predictions for the knock-out phase. (There is no point making predictions now, as the teams I see qualifying out of the group stage probably won't all make it, and that would just bugger up my predictions.)

So here are my predictions, bearing in mind a few constants:
- the cinderella team. That team from a tiny (usually African) country, who is at the World Cup for the first time and surprises everyone by doing very well. It quickly becomes very fashionable for people all over the world to suddenly become a "fan" of this team. In 1994 it was Cameroon, in 2002 Senegal. With four African debutants to pick from this time around, it should be very interesting.

- The eastern European team that refuses to lie down. In 1998 it was Croatia, in 2002 it was Turkey. This year I'm picking it to be a team that used to be considered a football powerhouse when it had "Slovakia" attached to it's name. The Czech Republic should do well.

- The traditional power that crashes out early. Remember how in 2002 the defending champions failed to score a single goal? And remember how Argentina left after 3 matches, partly because they lost to England? Argentina are in danger of repeating the feat, and Italy could easily be this team if they aren't careful.

So here we go - the groups, with my predicted finishing order shown: (oh, and if I happen to get 3rd and 4th mixed up, that doesn't really count. all that matters is I picked who went through.)

Group A
Germany
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Poland

Never bet against the host as the host always does well, and in this case never bet against the team that has appeared in (and also lost more) World Cup final matches than any other country. Costa Rica represented CONCACAF very well at the last World Cup (scoring more goals against Brazil than England did!) and I expect them to shock everybody by going through at the expense of an Ecuador team that does not play well at lower altitudes and a Poland who doesn't seem to handle the big occasion to well.

Group B
Sweden
England
Paraguay
Trinidad & Tobago

In the football world, T&T are the 5'2" guy who all the women say is "so cute!" but no one will actually date. It's a shame that the Soca Warriors don't get more respect because their two-legged defeat over Bahrain after navigating a gruelling three-round qualification process in CONCACAF is a real tribute to this tiny island nation, and sadly the football world doesn't give them the credit they are due. Even with names that are well known in England, like Dwight Yorke and Shaka Hislop, T&T will be going home without ruffling any feathers. The same cannot be said of Paraguay. Any team that qualifies out of COMNEBOL is going to be a threat, and England's stoppage-time victories over Argentina and Uruguay earlier this year will give them the psychological edge. But the result of their June 10 fixture is by no means set in stone, and the "best England team since 1966" might go home early if things do not go according to plan in Munich. Watch for Paraguay to be the party poopers and spoil my obviously biased prediction.

Group C
Netherlands
Ivory Coast
Argentina
Serbia & Montenegro

Really? No, but a man can dream! Though I'm certain enough to put it on my blog. Another June 10 match is critical here. I'm expecting Ivory Coast's physical approach to be enough to hold Argentina to a draw. This is the weakest Argentina team we've seen in some time and the pundits are not making a big enough deal of it. If the Ivory Coast v Argentina match ends in a draw, second place will come down to who scores more against Serbia & Montenegro, since they are both going to lose to the Netherlands, who will handily top this group. I'm expecting a few fluke goals for Ivory Coast, and some unlucky posts and crossbars for Argentina, to send debutants Ivory Coast through.

Group D
Mexico
Portugal
Iran
Angola

Iran and Angola really have no business being in the World Cup. Mexico and Portugal will qualify comfortably out of what is inarguably the weakest group in the competition, though who will top the group is up for speculation.

Group E
Czech Republic
Ghana
Italy
United States

Did you know that the Czech Republic are ranked second in the world, and Italy is ranked thirteenth? My predictions in this group are exactly reverse of what most people expect. But I think that this tournament's surprise packages (the European dark horse, and the African debutant Cinderella) are going to come out of this group. Also, I disagree with most who think Group C is the toughest. For me, this is the true "Group of Death" in Germany 2006. That being said, this finishing order is little more than wishful thinking on my behalf.

Group F
Brazil
Japan
Croatia
Australia

Need we say more?

Group G
France
South Korea
Switzerland
Togo

With Park Ji-Sun on his game, and France eager to prove that 2002 was a fluke, these two teams should have no problem going through.

Group H
Spain
Tunisia
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia

Sorry Shevchenko, put one player does not a team make. While many are picking Ukraine, not Czech Republic, to be the eastern European dark horse, I don't think they have the depth to overcome the traditional powerhouse and the African champions.

So to wrap up quickly: Argentina and Italy out early. Ghana and Czech Republic to go far.

But what about my final four? It's in Europe, so it will have to be mostly European teams. I'm going for Netherlands, England, Czech Republic, and Brazil. (Is that final four even possible? I don't know!)

Since you will all feel gypped if I don't pick a winner, I'll invoke the bias rule and pick England - man of the match, Theo Walcott! (-;

So come back after the group stage to see my knockout predictions and tell me how wrong I was!