FIFA U20 predictions

So the FIFA U20 World Cup ended last night. Well, that's not entirely true. The quarter-finals ended last night, and so did the participation of every host city except for Toronto and Edmonton. Since I live in Ottawa and attended every game there, it feels like the tournament is over for me. Especially because I don't have television and will be unable to watch the remaining matches.

It doesn't matter though, because even though we are only at the semi-final stage, it is clear that Argentina will win. Which means that as an England fan, I don't want to watch the rest of this tournament.

I figured that this tournament might provide me with some joy because England wasn't in it. (England's non-participation in this tournament is not an indictment of their footballing acumen. Most European powers decided to give this tournament a miss, instead focusing on the European U21 championships that happened a few weeks earlier, where England ultimately did quite well, losing an interminably long penalty shoot-out to Netherlands in the semi-final. In fact, many traditional European powers including Netherlands, France, Italy, and Germany did not go to the tournament in Canada.) England, the nation that invented football, has not won a major footballing tournament since 1966, so their non-participation was actually seen by me as an opportunity to avoid disappointment. And since their arch-rivals Argentina were in this tournament I figured that the three lions on my chest gave me free reign to cheer for whoever was playing against Argentina. Since Argentina opened the tournament five teams have disappointed me, with only one managing to score against the Albicelestes, and only one other denying them a win.

The only thing worse so far would have been cheering against Chile. Up to this point, Argentina has been undefeated, has conceded only one goal, and has won every game except one. The only team with a better record has been Chile, who have won every game but one without conceding a single goal. True, they were forced to overtime in their quarter-final against Nigeria, but in the 30 extra minutes they put four goals past the Flying Eagles.

But we are entering the semi-finals, which is where fairytales end. Cinderella teams never make it past the semi-finals. Both Turkey and South Korea made it to the semi-finals of World Cup 2002, but the final was contested by Brasil and Germany, the two countries who have appeared in more finals than any other. The only exception to this hard and fast rule is the (glorious) surprise of Greece winning Euro 2004. But anomalies like that only occur once a century.

Argentina will roll over Chile, without needing extra time. (Argentina are the only semi-finalist who have not yet gone to extra time this tournament.) The Czech Republic will spoil the party for Austria, the team whose performances thus far actually mean they deserve to win the trophy.

The inevitable Argentina v Czech Republic final on Sunday is a foregone conclusion. It is interesting that the final will be a rematch of the first game of the tournament, where the two countries battled to a hard-fought nil-nil draw. But one should not let that result fool you into thinking that these two countries are evenly matched.

If we count victories in penalty shoot-outs as ties rather than wins, we can see that going into the semi-finals Argentina boasts a record of 4 wins and 1 tie, while Czech Republic have taken the tough road to the semis, with only 1 win and 4 ties.

The teams are markedly uneven in terms of goals as well. Since their opener the Czech Republic have conceded in every game they have played, and have not scored more than 2 goals in any single game. When excluding penalty shoot-outs their goals for-against is an unconvincing 7-6. Compare this to Argentina, whose for-against is a startling 11-1, helped immensely by a 6-0 thumping of Panama, who the Czechs only managed to beat 2-1.

Expecting more disappointment I will be cheering heavily for Austria, and especially for Chile, this coming week.


Other interesting factoids:

- The 4 semi-finalists come from only two groups (groups A and F). This means that the final could be one of two possible first-round rematches: Argentina v Czech Republic, or Chile v Austria. In both cases, the first round game finished 0-0.

- Austria has won each of their knockout stage matches by the same scoreline (2-1) with the same substitute (Erwin Hoffer) scoring the winning goal in both.

- Czech Republic have won all of their knockout stage matches on penalties. None of the other semi-finalists have yet gone to penalties.

- Argentina's victory over Mexico in Ottawa was the only quarter-final not to go to extra-time, though interestingly the only goal of the game was scored in first-half stoppage time.